Betting on underdogs in football, tennis, basketball and other sports is profitable when analyzed correctly. Don't think that any underdog bet is worth it. It is necessary to bet on underdog victories only according to strict systemic principles.
Who are underdogs and how to identify them in the list of bookmakers
The word "underdog" comes from dog fighting slang. The losing dog was pinned to the floor by his opponent. Hence - "under the dog."
In sports betting, the underdog is a clear outsider in the upcoming confrontation.
In most cases, the odds for underdog wins start from 3.00. But this figure can be higher (5.00, 7.00) depending on the sport.
Large odds are the result of an assessment of the balance of power between the outsider and the favorite by the bookmaker. But the growth of quotes is also affected by the fact that most players prefer to bet on the favorite.
Underdog betting options in different sports
Who are underdogs and how to identify them in the list of bookmakers
The word "underdog" comes from dog fighting slang. The losing dog was pinned to the floor by his opponent. Hence - "under the dog."
In sports betting, the underdog is a clear outsider in the upcoming confrontation.
In most cases, the odds for underdog wins start from 3.00. But this figure can be higher (5.00, 7.00) depending on the sport.
Large odds are the result of an assessment of the balance of power between the outsider and the favorite by the bookmaker. But the growth of quotes is also affected by the fact that most players prefer to bet on the favorite.
Underdog betting options in different sports
The strategy of betting on an outsider requires the correct selection of markets. It is best not to focus on pure bets on underdog wins, but to choose among such options.
- Handicap bet. In this case, choose such a handicap so that the odds for the underdog bet reach the level of 1.90-2.50.
- Bet type "1X", "X2". If it is too risky to bet on a weak team to win outright, it will be enough to bet that they will not lose. This is only suitable for competitions where a tie is possible in regular time.
- Underdog individual total (TB). This kind of market for the underdog in football, tennis, basketball and other sports can be effectively exploited. Bookmakers often underestimate the potential impact of underdogs. Thus, odds of 2.00-3.00 can come in even if the outsider loses.
- Favorite individual total (TM). In this case, the opposite principle is tested. This is a betting strategy against the favorite, which is popular in basketball, handball, and football. The bet is made on the fact that the underdog will not miss the number of goals, according to the total of which the bookmaker gives a coefficient of 2.00-3.00 for the favorite.
Underdog betting examples by sport
Football. On February 6, 2020, Athletic Bilbao hosted Barcelona in the quarter-finals of the Copa del Rey. The odds for the hosts' victory exceeded 4.00. The hosts were considered an underdog. It was too risky to bet on their victory. But the fact that Athletic did not lose the coefficient was about 1.90-2.00 in different bookmakers. This bet was justified for the cup match. The game ended with a score of 1:0 in favor of the hosts.
Basketball. On February 10, 2020, Khimki near Moscow in the VTB United League played at home with the Nizhny Novgorod club. The hosts are the clear favourites. For the victory of the guests with a handicap of 12 points, they gave a coefficient of 2.10-2.30. At the same time, Khimki led a difficult campaign in European competition. Therefore, the bet "Win2 with a handicap (+12)" is fully justified. The match ended with a score of 98:94.
Tennis. On February 28, 2020, the first racket of the world Novak Djokovic played with Gael Monfils and is considered the undisputed favorite. But given the difficult calendar leading up to the Australian Open, as well as the strength of the Frenchman on hard, you can give a small handicap to Monfils. The coefficient for the victory of an outsider with a handicap (+4.5) for games was about 2.10-2.30. The bet would have been winning, because the match ended with a score of 2:1 in sets and 15:13 in games in favor of Djokovic.
The examples show that it is not necessary to bet on underdog wins. It is advisable to look for value bets on handicaps and totals.
Pre-match analysis of the odds of the underdog and the favorite
It is possible to bet on obvious outsiders in bookmakers only on the basis of a detailed pre-match analysis. Look for the right ratios by paying attention to these basic principles.
- A series of major victories for the favorite. On the one hand, this increases the odds of bookmakers on the success of the underdog. On the other hand, a stronger team or an athlete is less motivated for a crushing victory.
- The favorite performs after additional loads. In football, strong teams have many players who go to the national teams. After such fees, the club cannot show its highest level. And in tennis, top players spend a lot more matches, as they go far in the tournament brackets. After major tournaments, they often lose in the early stages of less significant competitions.
- Tournament motivation. An example from basketball or hockey. If in a playoff series one of the teams leads by a large margin, it will not give all the best in the next match. This principle is especially relevant if the game takes place in the underdog's home arena.
- Uncomfortable rivals. Each giant has its own "Achilles heel". For example, in Spain, Real Madrid often cannot beat Athletic Bilbao: in 31% of meetings, they are completely defeated. And for Barcelona, Atletico Madrid is considered a stumbling block: 32% of losses.
- Incoming factors: home or away arena, tennis surface, injuries of leading players, weather conditions, etc.
Remember that any mathematical strategy of betting on an outsider will surely lead to a drain on the pot. Professionals bet on the underdog only after a detailed pre-match analysis.
Underdog betting systems
Underdog betting systems
Are there remote betting systems for underdogs? It is difficult to bet on outsiders according to the strategy due to the fact that it is not always possible to find a suitable match.
If a player bets on sports and championships that he is well versed in, then this is a limited number of tournaments. Often they simply do not have matches between suitable opponents. In this sense, tennis is best suited, where there are regular games between opponents of different classes.
And yet there are several distance systems, each of which can be called an underdog betting strategy.
- Underdog's home match. Choose five to ten clubs that are considered weak, but are not inferior at home with a big score. In matches with leaders at home stadiums, there are plus odds with odds of 1.70-2.10.
- Cup fights. Here, the strategy of betting against the favorite justifies itself, as many leaders “merge” cup tournaments, putting up second or even third squads against obvious outsiders.
- Insurance system. According to this strategy, bet on winning or not losing an underdog with a coefficient of about 4.00-7.00 in a prematch. After half an hour of play or during the break, if the favorite does not lead in the score, then the odds for his victory will increase significantly, so you need to make a cross bet. This strategy is risky, as the favorite can quickly print the gates of a weak team.