The safety of betting on the favorite is a myth and a trap. But many players also bet at low odds.
The strategy of betting on the favorite is mistakenly considered safe. One failure can cover several wins. In this article, we will tell you how to choose an event to bet on the favorite and how to place a bet with the best odds.
What is a favorite betting strategy
This is a betting strategy at low odds - up to 1.55. In theory, such quotes minimize risks. Therefore, the strategy of betting on the favorite is usually called "Safety".
But to be in the black in the long run with such a strategy is difficult. One loss covers three or four successful bets.
Follow the two main principles of this strategy:
- Don't bet on big odds. The maximum value of quotes for bets is not higher than 1.55.
- Take the victory of the favorite if the odds for the outsider are at least twice as high. For example, if you bet 1.50 on one team to win, their opponent will have odds of 3.00 or higher.
Choosing a match to bet on the favorite
The betting strategy against the favorite involves the selection of sporting events that are the least amenable to analysis. If you decide to bet on the favorites, look for the most predictable events where the probability of an underdog winning is minimal.
Therefore, you should not bet on the victory of the favorite in the following situations:
- A strong team lacks tournament motivation. For example, in the last matches of the championship, if she secured victory in the competition in advance.
- The match takes place under bad weather conditions, which eliminates the difference in class and technique.
- The favorite is approaching the meeting with a series of several matches without a win.
According to statistics, most often the favorites win in handball, basketball and American football. In football, their winning percentage is just over 50%.
Due to handball, basketball and other predictable sports, the favorite was sometimes given odds below 1.10. Therefore, players often choose to bet on the favorite in tennis or football. Since here quotes are often given at the level of 1.20 and above.
Favorite bet example
For example, in the 29th round of the football Bundesliga in the 2019/2020 season, Borussia Dortmund beat Paderborn 6-1 on the road.
Before the start of the match, the odds for the hosts' win were 8.70, and for the guests' win they gave 1.33. The difference is much more than twice, so the match was suitable for betting on the favorite.
Of course, it is necessary to analyze the matches and not just follow the odds in the bookmakers' lines. But in the case of the given example, the statistics only confirmed the reliability of the bet. Paderborn were in last place. Borussia Dortmund won six of their last seven matches in the Bundesliga before this meeting.
How to profitably bet on the favorite in football
Determine the break-even point - the percentage of bets that must go to break even at a given average odds.
Break even point formula:
T = 100 / K, where K is the average coefficient.
For example, you bet with an average odd of 1.25. Then you need to pass at least 80% of the bet: 100 / 1.25.
Bet on your favorite in advance. Sometimes bookmakers give a line for a top match a couple of weeks before the meeting or even earlier. If you are sure that the favorite will put up the main team, make a bet.
The fact is that there will be a large amount of bets on the team you have chosen. After all, people want to capitalize on her victory. Because of this, a load occurs - a decrease in the coefficient on the outcome due to a lot of bets.
For example, for the victory of Juventus in the match with SPAL in the 25th round of Serie A in the 2019/2020 season, they initially gave a coefficient of 1.48. Before the meeting, the quotes for winning Turintsy dropped to 1.40. What does it mean?
At odds of 1.48 you need a pass of 67.57% of the bets. With a quote of 1.40, the throughput must be at least 71.43%.
At a distance of 10,000 bets, this is a huge difference. In the first case, 6757 wins are enough to reach zero, and in the second - 7143.
Betting on the favorite is not the best strategy. But with the right choice of matches and bets in advance, you have a chance of making a profit.