Value bets can consistently make a profit, which is why bookmakers are afraid of them. In this article, we will analyze what value bets are and how to find them, as well as look at surebets and pot allocation rules.
What are value bets
Value bets (value) are bets on outcomes underestimated by the bookmaker. That is, bets where the probability of a particular outcome is higher than the bookmaker believes.
A value bet if:
K x P >1, where K is the coefficient, P is your estimate of the probability.
Determine the percentage of possible profit using the formula:
(K x P - 1) x 100.
For example, the bookmaker estimated the victory of Zenit in a football match with Dynamo with a coefficient of 1.60, and in your opinion, the probability of success for the hosts is 70%.
Assessing the bet:
1.60 x 0.7 = 1.12 >1, value bet.
We calculate the percentage of profit:
(1.60 x 0.7 - 1) x 100 = 12%
If you bet with odds of 1.60 on outcomes with a 70% chance of passing, you will receive 12% profit on the distance, subject to a correct assessment.
Value bet example
For example, in a tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, bookmakers give odds of 1.50 for Djokovic to win and 2.60 for Nadal to win.
You did a detailed analysis of the match and decided that Djokovic had a 76% chance of winning.
Assessing the bet:
1.50 x 0.76 = 1.14 >1, value bet.
Determine the possible profit at a distance using the formula:
N x V x (K x P - 1), where N is the number of bets, P is your probability estimate, K is the odds, V is the bet amount.
If you correctly assessed the odds and make 50 similar bets in the amount of $1000, then the profit will be $7000: 50 x 1000 x (1.50 x 0.76 - 1).
How to find a value bet
Analyze events yourself or use the scanner to find surebets or value bets.
Fork game
Fork - an opportunity to get a guaranteed profit by betting on different outcomes of one event.
Fork shoulders are the outcomes of one market that form a fork.
Surebet Scanner is a value betting software that analyzes bookmaker odds in real time.
Find the plug yourself using the formula:
Sp = 1 / K1 + 1 / K2 + ... + 1 / Kn, where Sp is the sum of probabilities, n is the number of outcomes in one market, K1, K2, ..., Kn are the odds for the outcomes of one market.
If Sp < 1, then you have found a fork.
Allocate the pot to a fork according to the formula:
S = 1 / K / Sp x B, where S is the amount of the bet on the leverage of the fork, Sp is the sum of the probabilities, B is the size of the pot allocated to the entire fork.
For example, for the match "Atletico Madrid" - "Liverpool" in different bookmakers, you can bet at odds of 3.35 for the hosts to win, for 3.49 for a draw and for 2.55 for the guests to win.
Checking the coefficients for the presence of a surebet:
1 / 3.35 + 1 / 3.49 + 1 / 2.55 = 0.978 < 1, we have a fork.
We calculate the bet amounts for each surebet leverage with a pot size of $10,000:
- P1 = 1 / 3.35 / 0.978 x 10,000 \u003d 3052 dollars.
- X = 1 / 3.49 / 0.978 x 10,000 \u003d 2930 dollars.
- P2 = 1 / 2.55 / 0.978 x 10,000 \u003d 4010 dollars.
Guaranteed profit will be 224 dollars:
- A victory for Atlético Madrid will bring $10,224: 3,052 x 3.35.
- In case of a draw, the payout will be $10,226: 2930 x 3.49.
- If Liverpool is successful, you will receive $10,226: 4010 x 2.55.
How much to bet on a value bet
Determine the amount of the value bet using the formula:
((K x P - 1) / (K - 1)) x R x B, where K is the odds, P is your probability score, B is the size of the pot, and R is the win rate.
If you have played 35 bets out of 100, then R = 0.35. For beginners, Championship recommends using R = 0.25.
Let's return to the tennis match Novak Djokovic - Rafael Nadal. We calculate the amount of the bet with a bank size of 10,000 dollars and R = 0.25:
((1.50 x 0.76 - 1) / (1.50 - 1)) x 0.25 x 10,000 = $700.
Pros and cons of value bets
Advantage - high chances of profit with high-quality analysis and the correct distribution of bet amounts.
The disadvantage is that it is impossible to accurately estimate the probability of passing a bet.
Value bets can be profitable over a long distance if one or another outcome is correctly assessed. When betting on value, analyze all available information and follow the rules of pot distribution. For guaranteed profits, play surebets.