Boxing betting strategies are not viable without taking into account the place of the fight and the factor of the judges. In this article, we will look at the features of boxing bets, their advantages and disadvantages, as well as how to analyze events to increase the likelihood of winning a bet.
Features of betting on boxing
Features of betting on boxing
Like in other sports, betting on boxing has its own peculiarities:
- Amateur boxing is presented in most bookmakers only during the Olympic Games, World Championships or other major international tournaments. In other cases, they offer to bet on professional boxing.
- Most bets on boxing matches offer to bet on the victory of one of the fighters. A limited number of bookmakers gives a wider range of markets for this sport.
- A professional boxer usually holds 2-3 fights a year, and sometimes less. Therefore, in order to regularly bet on boxing online, analyze the form and performance history of many athletes.
- Many boxers have a knockout punch, so early wins in boxing are no less common than wins on points.
- In boxing, the odds for a favorite to win are sometimes low if they are up against an unknown fighter. This is due to the large volume of bets on the victory of a famous athlete, which is why bookmakers reduce quotes for such an outcome.
- Judges often give victory to the owner of the ring in an equal match in the nature of the fight, if the fighter performs at the home arena.
Types of boxing bets
Choose the tactics of betting on boxing based on the type of bet on this sport:
- For the winner. Bookmakers offer to choose a fighter and bet on his victory in the round or in the entire match.
- For an early win. If both boxers have a good knockout punch, this type of boxing bet is relevant. The fight may end ahead of schedule due to a knockout or due to the refusal of the fighter to continue the fight, as well as by decision of the referee or doctor.
- Bets on round totals. You need to choose more or less than a given number of rounds. Such bets are relevant for meetings of athletes who often finish their fights ahead of schedule.
- For a knockout. In this case, we bet on the victory by knockout.
- On the method of victory. The fight can end with a knockout, the refusal of one of the opponents, a victory on points, a technical defeat or disqualification. Some bookmakers offer to bet on boxing, predicting exactly how this fight will end.
Popular boxing betting strategies
You can bet on boxing using different strategies:
Waiting strategy. Choose a match in which the underdog has a good chance of winning in your opinion. For example, an outsider came into the fight in good shape, having won against several highly ranked opponents, while his opponent has not fought for a long time or is in poor condition due to a recently healed injury. With this boxing betting strategy, take the underdog win in the second round. If the choice does not work, bet on the victory of an outsider in the third round, increasing the bet size by the initial bet amount.
Catching up on a knockout. Everything is the same as waiting strategies, but bet on a knockout in the next round, and not on an outsider to win. Calculate the size of each next bet using the formula:
Bet amount = (first bet amount + loss amount) / (odds - 1).
Oscar Grind method. This is a financial strategy for betting on events with odds of at least 2.00. If the bet is lost, do not change the amount of the next bet. If you win, increase the bet amount by the original bet size.
Forks. Search different bookmakers for quotes on opposite events with odds around 2.00. Having found such an arbitrage situation, bet in such a way as to make a profit anyway.
Usually surebets appear when betting on the victory of one of the fighters in a duel of equal opponents.
For example, for the victory of fighter A they give a coefficient of 2.10, and for the victory of fighter B in another office - 1.97. We calculate the arb coefficient:
S = 1 / 2.10 + 1 / 1.97 = 0.476 + 0.508 = 0.984.
If S 1, there is a fork. When S > 1, there is no fork.
Calculate the payout from this surebet with a bet of $100 as 100 / 0.984 = $101.62.
100 dollars - the amount of the bet, 1.62% - net profit.
Calculate the bet amounts for each outcome using the formula:
V / K, where V is the payout for the fork, and K is the odds to win.
We calculate in our example:
Event Analysis for Boxing Betting
Forks. Search different bookmakers for quotes on opposite events with odds around 2.00. Having found such an arbitrage situation, bet in such a way as to make a profit anyway.
Usually surebets appear when betting on the victory of one of the fighters in a duel of equal opponents.
For example, for the victory of fighter A they give a coefficient of 2.10, and for the victory of fighter B in another office - 1.97. We calculate the arb coefficient:
S = 1 / 2.10 + 1 / 1.97 = 0.476 + 0.508 = 0.984.
If S 1, there is a fork. When S > 1, there is no fork.
Calculate the payout from this surebet with a bet of $100 as 100 / 0.984 = $101.62.
100 dollars - the amount of the bet, 1.62% - net profit.
Calculate the bet amounts for each outcome using the formula:
V / K, where V is the payout for the fork, and K is the odds to win.
We calculate in our example:
- 101.62 / 2.10 = 48.40 dollars for the victory of fighter A.
- 101.62 / 1.97 = $51.60 to win Fighter B.
Event Analysis for Boxing Betting
How to bet on any of the boxing betting strategies? Analyze possible outcomes and evaluate the chances of different events. Keep the following points in mind when betting on boxing:
- Do not bet on the favorite to win if you do not know anything about his opponent and cannot find information about this athlete.
- Monitor the health of athletes. If a fighter has had a recent injury or is having trouble cutting weight before a fight, that athlete's chances of success in the fight are reduced.
- Avoid betting on a boxer winning his first fight after moving up to a heavier weight class. Here, the opponents will have more powerful blows here and it is not clear how the fighter will feel in this weight category.
- Look at the percentage of fighters winning by knockout to estimate the likelihood of such an outcome in their face-to-face meeting.
- Take into account the place of fighters in the rating when betting on rating battles. Often the rating reflects the real balance of power of boxers in a fight.
- Analyze recent fights of boxers to better understand their fighting style and how well they are able to prepare physically for fights. This is especially true for older athletes, who find it harder to complete all 12 rounds in the ring in championship fights compared to younger opponents.
- Consider the judging factor for local athletes. There have been many scandalous decisions in boxing when the victory was given to a local fighter, although his opponent looked no worse, and sometimes even better. A striking example of such refereeing was the result of the first duel between Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley. This fight took place on June 9, 2012 in Las Vegas, that is, on the territory of an American. Pacquiao dominated the entire fight, landed 253 accurate punches to 159 from the opponent. But the judges gave the victory to Bradley by a split decision with a score of 115:113 115:113 113:115.
Advantages and disadvantages of betting on boxing
Pros:
- This is an individual sport in which the fighter is for himself. There are no teammates whose mistakes can affect the result.
- In most cases, there is a lot of information about the fighters for pre-match analysis.
- For many fights, there is a list only with bets on the outcome, and some bookmakers put up a line only for the most status fights.
- In boxing, any opponent can win thanks to a "lucky punch".
- Periodic refereeing scandals, when the victory is given to a local athlete or favorite, although his opponent looked better.