Who loses at the casino?
The one who comes to earn money loses in the casino. If you go to the casino for this purpose, you have already lost! They go to the casino to spend time in luxury and excitement. They go to work for money. Therefore, before going to the casino, allocate an amount that you do not mind. And how to save it is my task, for the solution of which this article was written.
Second moment. Never play slot machines (one-armed bandits). There is no more mediocre and stupid way to squander money than throwing coins into an iron box. However, according to the American Gaming Association in Las Vegas casinos, 74% of players prefer slot machines and only 5% prefer roulette.
What is the fundamental difference between a slot machine and roulette? In the first case, you are playing with a black box, which decides for itself whether to give you a win or not. In the case of roulette, your opponent is the theory of probability with objective laws that you can observe with your own eyes. The opaque operation of slot machines allows you to put any “appetite” into them. Therefore, in different countries, including Russia, the minimum return on winnings by slot machines is forcibly set at the state level. As a rule, the minimum value is limited to 90%. Those. if you play such a machine for a long time, you will find that it “eats” only every tenth ruble put into it. They say that in Las Vegas, at the initiative of individual casinos, this bar is raised to almost 95% (it is impossible to check, you can only believe in the kindness of gambling sharks). But more often the percentage fluctuates (at least it should) around 90%. Compare this with roulette, where the “appetite” of the casino is not 10%, but only 2.7%.
Roulette: The Basics
On a roulette wheel, numbers from 0 to 36 are scattered around. This is European roulette. In American roulette there is also the 38th number - "00". Be afraid of American roulette, you are twice as likely to lose in it than in European one! This means that a trip to Las Vegas should be preferred to a trip to Monte Carlo or Macau (a Chinese gambling zone that has long outdone the legendary Las Vegas in terms of turnover). Why is American roulette twice as voracious as its European sister? To do this, you need to understand how to win at roulette. Its size is determined not by the desire of the casino owner, but only by the theory of probability. And it works like this.
Let's discard the ill-fated 0 and 00 for now, imagining that we have 36 numbers. The probability that a specific number will randomly fall out is 1 in 36 (or 1/36). This means that you only have a 1 in 36 chance of guessing which number will come up (i.e. 2.78% chance (= 1/36 * 100%)). But if you guess right, you will receive from the casino 36 times more than the amount you bet.
All 36 numbers are equally colored black and red (18 black and 18 red; only zero is green). You can choose whether to bet on red or black. If you bet a chip on "red" and guess right, the casino returns you 2 times more than you bet. Why exactly 2 times, and not 3 or 4? Because the probability of guessing by betting on "red" or "black" is 18/36 or 1/2. And therefore, your reward will be 2 times the bet (ie, equal to the denominator of the fraction).
According to the rules of roulette, you can bet a chip not only on a specific number or on black-red, but also close several numbers at once with one chip. In particular, 12 numbers, 6, 4, 2 numbers (below in the article there is a picture showing how this is done on the gaming table). And in all cases, if you guess correctly, the winnings will be inversely proportional to the probability of guessing. So, closing 12 numbers, you will receive 3 times more chips than you bet (12/36 = 1/3); put a chip on 4 numbers at once, get 9 chips (4/36 = 1/9) and so on, the principle is clear - less chance of winning, more chips you get.
If there were only 36 numbers on roulette (by the way, the sum of all numbers from 1 to 36 is 666, which is why roulette is called the “ferris wheel”), then we could play casinos for hours on end, remaining with our money. As shown above, winning would exactly balance the probability of losing. But the casino is not a charity, so it wants to take a bite out of your pie. To do this, the 37th was added to the 36 numbers - “0” (European roulette). And the greedy Americans also have the 38th - "00". The rules for calculating the winnings remained the same, as if we had 36 numbers. It turns out that the 37th (and 38th) number is the income of the casino. Now the probability that your number will fall out is 1/37 (or 1/38 in the American version), but you still get 36 times more than you bet. It turns out that on average the casino receives 1 dollar out of every 37 dollars that you bet on roulette. Casino income - 2.7% (1/37 * 100%); and from American roulette - 5.3% (2/38).
How to win a good mood at roulette with minimal costs
First, never bet on a specific number! Did you bet on "14"? The probability that exactly “14” will fall out is less than 3%. So, instead of getting 36 chips instead of one placed on the table, you will most likely just lose it.
Secondly, do not bet on "black-red". This is the easiest and most attractive option for beginners. With a probability close to 50 to 50, you will either lose your chip or win 2 instead of 1 placed on the table. This is better than betting on a specific number, naively believing that Fortune is sleeping and seeing how to treat you with attention. But it's still not smart enough. Because:
So what to bet on?
Bet 5 chips at once, closing 5 blocks of 6 numbers each (called "six-line" in English). In roulette, there is such a bet option when 6 consecutive numbers are closed with one chip. By betting on 6 numbers, if you win, you get 6 chips instead of one bet. The probability of winning is 1/6 (more precisely, 6/37 due to the presence of "0", but for simplicity we will assume that "one sixth"). However, we do not want to win on average 1 time for every 6 bets. Therefore, we close not 1 block of 6 numbers, but 5 at once. In other words, we leave only 6 unclosed numbers plus "0". Which 6 numbers to leave open is up to you, practice your intuition. The main thing is that now we will win with a probability of 5/6 (or more precisely, 30/37), and we will lose with a probability of 1/6 (or, taking into account zero, 7/37). That is, the probability of winning is 5 times greater than losing. Yes, miracles do not happen, when we win, our wallet will grow with only one chip, and if one of the “not our” 7 numbers falls out, we will lose 5 chips. But the key point here is that we will win 5 times more often than we lose!
The thing is that we rejoice in winning 1 chip not 5 times less than we regret losing 5. This is subjective, it is difficult to prove, but in practice it is so. Winning more often but less is a more positive pastime than winning a lot and rarely (or even never). In fact, if you bet on one number, you will win on average 37 times. But you need it, depressingly lose chips 36 times and wait for this rare moment of winning?! Moreover, there can easily be more than 36 losses in a row, and in order to “wait out” them, waiting for a win, you need more chips ... Do you need it, spend money on a cloud of chips and then watch your fiasco over and over again? You did not come to the casino for this!
To play on the “five-sixths” tactic, 20 “start-up capital” chips will be enough for you. That is, 100 euros in Monte Carlo is enough. The probability that you will never win is 0.13%. That is, you must be very guilty of Fortune so that she jokes so cruelly on you. No one has canceled the legal casino income of 2.7% with any approach to betting. But if you bet your 100 euros entirely on one number, or, which is a little better, on the “red-black”, you will learn about such a moderate casino income only from this article, but not from practice.
First, never bet on a specific number! Did you bet on "14"? The probability that exactly “14” will fall out is less than 3%. So, instead of getting 36 chips instead of one placed on the table, you will most likely just lose it.
Secondly, do not bet on "black-red". This is the easiest and most attractive option for beginners. With a probability close to 50 to 50, you will either lose your chip or win 2 instead of 1 placed on the table. This is better than betting on a specific number, naively believing that Fortune is sleeping and seeing how to treat you with attention. But it's still not smart enough. Because:
- for bets on the "black-red" casino, as a rule, sets the minimum bet 5 times higher compared to other betting options (so that you lose money faster, and do not pull the cat by the tail);
- we don’t want to be happy or upset with a probability of 50 to 50, we want to be more happy than sad.
So what to bet on?
Bet 5 chips at once, closing 5 blocks of 6 numbers each (called "six-line" in English). In roulette, there is such a bet option when 6 consecutive numbers are closed with one chip. By betting on 6 numbers, if you win, you get 6 chips instead of one bet. The probability of winning is 1/6 (more precisely, 6/37 due to the presence of "0", but for simplicity we will assume that "one sixth"). However, we do not want to win on average 1 time for every 6 bets. Therefore, we close not 1 block of 6 numbers, but 5 at once. In other words, we leave only 6 unclosed numbers plus "0". Which 6 numbers to leave open is up to you, practice your intuition. The main thing is that now we will win with a probability of 5/6 (or more precisely, 30/37), and we will lose with a probability of 1/6 (or, taking into account zero, 7/37). That is, the probability of winning is 5 times greater than losing. Yes, miracles do not happen, when we win, our wallet will grow with only one chip, and if one of the “not our” 7 numbers falls out, we will lose 5 chips. But the key point here is that we will win 5 times more often than we lose!
The thing is that we rejoice in winning 1 chip not 5 times less than we regret losing 5. This is subjective, it is difficult to prove, but in practice it is so. Winning more often but less is a more positive pastime than winning a lot and rarely (or even never). In fact, if you bet on one number, you will win on average 37 times. But you need it, depressingly lose chips 36 times and wait for this rare moment of winning?! Moreover, there can easily be more than 36 losses in a row, and in order to “wait out” them, waiting for a win, you need more chips ... Do you need it, spend money on a cloud of chips and then watch your fiasco over and over again? You did not come to the casino for this!
To play on the “five-sixths” tactic, 20 “start-up capital” chips will be enough for you. That is, 100 euros in Monte Carlo is enough. The probability that you will never win is 0.13%. That is, you must be very guilty of Fortune so that she jokes so cruelly on you. No one has canceled the legal casino income of 2.7% with any approach to betting. But if you bet your 100 euros entirely on one number, or, which is a little better, on the “red-black”, you will learn about such a moderate casino income only from this article, but not from practice.
The described theory of “positive visits to the casino” has been tested by me more than once in practice and I can confirm that:
Are there any other betting options?
There is. According to the same theory of enjoying the game, you can bet 2 chips, closing 2 lines of 12 numbers. With a probability of 2 out of 3 you will increase your budget by 1 chip, otherwise you will lose 2 chips. In this case, you will need even less "seed capital". If you have only 12 chips, then blow them all down without ever winning - you need to try very hard, because. the probability of this is only 1.7%. But personally, the probability of losing every 2 wins seems to me not a positive enough rest, so I like the “five-sixths” option more.
And you can bring my theory to the point of absurdity - take 35 chips and close 35 numbers at once, leaving only 2 numbers at the discretion of evil fate. With a 95% chance (that is, 35 times out of 37) you will get 35 chips back and an additional 1 prize. But in 5% of cases you will say goodbye to all 35 chips, which is very, very disappointing. It's more of an approach for someone who chooses between suicide and "getting rich." A person takes 35 million in debt, puts them on 35 numbers and with a probability of 95 out of 100 becomes a millionaire. Well, in 5 cases out of 100 creditors will implement the first option... We don't need such a roulette.
Conclusion
Roulette is the theory of probability in its purest form, which you can see and touch. Roulette is the most honest way to take money from the population, it is much more honest than contributions for major repairs or funded pensions.
The above approach is applicable not only in roulette. For example, movements in financial markets sometimes do not differ much from random ones. No wonder FOREX is often compared to a casino. If you rely not only on your knowledge and intuition, but also on the theory of probability, then you can earn not so much, but at least not lose much.
- the joy of winning 1 chip may be less than the bitterness of losing 5, but definitely not 5 times. Therefore, by winning 5 times more often than losing, you spend the evening positively, feeling first hand the basic rules of probability theory.
- 20 chips are enough for the evening. I didn't go to the casino often, but I never left without a chip. As a rule, with what he came, he left with that, but sometimes in the black. This is explained by the fact that I did not play often and not all night long, so these legitimate 2.7% simply were not felt.
Are there any other betting options?
There is. According to the same theory of enjoying the game, you can bet 2 chips, closing 2 lines of 12 numbers. With a probability of 2 out of 3 you will increase your budget by 1 chip, otherwise you will lose 2 chips. In this case, you will need even less "seed capital". If you have only 12 chips, then blow them all down without ever winning - you need to try very hard, because. the probability of this is only 1.7%. But personally, the probability of losing every 2 wins seems to me not a positive enough rest, so I like the “five-sixths” option more.
And you can bring my theory to the point of absurdity - take 35 chips and close 35 numbers at once, leaving only 2 numbers at the discretion of evil fate. With a 95% chance (that is, 35 times out of 37) you will get 35 chips back and an additional 1 prize. But in 5% of cases you will say goodbye to all 35 chips, which is very, very disappointing. It's more of an approach for someone who chooses between suicide and "getting rich." A person takes 35 million in debt, puts them on 35 numbers and with a probability of 95 out of 100 becomes a millionaire. Well, in 5 cases out of 100 creditors will implement the first option... We don't need such a roulette.
Conclusion
Roulette is the theory of probability in its purest form, which you can see and touch. Roulette is the most honest way to take money from the population, it is much more honest than contributions for major repairs or funded pensions.
The above approach is applicable not only in roulette. For example, movements in financial markets sometimes do not differ much from random ones. No wonder FOREX is often compared to a casino. If you rely not only on your knowledge and intuition, but also on the theory of probability, then you can earn not so much, but at least not lose much.