Betting on the underdog in basketball can make you rich, but the clear favorite rarely loses. Therefore, the underdog is more often approached by plus odds and a victory in the quarter according to the catch-up strategy. In this article, we will analyze both schemes and evaluate their effectiveness.
Why do basketball bet on underdogs?
Betting on the underdog in basketball has become very popular for a number of reasons:
Pre-match analysis for underdog betting in basketball
It is logical to bet on an outsider in basketball, selecting events with low odds for the favorite to win.
In such matches, we bet on the victory of the underdog with a plus handicap with a coefficient of about 1.90-2.20.
The essence of the strategy is to learn how to find games with an outsider winning or a minimal advantage for the favorite. Consider the following factors:
Why do basketball bet on underdogs?
Betting on the underdog in basketball has become very popular for a number of reasons:
- The world's most popular league, the NBA, is highly competitive. In each game day, you can find several matches where the odds for outsiders to win are clearly too high.
- Bookmakers give a wide range of odds. When betting on the underdog in basketball strategy, you can give the underdog a handicap of 8-13 points with high odds of 2.00-3.00.
- You can bet on different segments. In the pre-match betting list, there are always options for betting on the first quarter, the first half of the meeting. And in live, you can bet on the victory of an outsider in one of the quarters.
Pre-match analysis for underdog betting in basketball
It is logical to bet on an outsider in basketball, selecting events with low odds for the favorite to win.
In such matches, we bet on the victory of the underdog with a plus handicap with a coefficient of about 1.90-2.20.
The essence of the strategy is to learn how to find games with an outsider winning or a minimal advantage for the favorite. Consider the following factors:
- The favorite plays on the road without the support of the stands and is not interested in a major defeat. The coach of the guests can give an additional load to the reservists.
- The outsider has a series of devastating defeats. Because of this, the coefficients for the team's luck are high - from 4.00. But it is in this match, for example, that a key performer returns or a new coach is appointed. Take an underdog with odds around 2.00-3.00.
- Conversely, the favorite could win several matches in a row with a big score. The odds for his next victory are underestimated. Bet on an underdog with a handicap.
- Tournament motivation is important in high intensity championships. If a team plays three or four games in ten days, the coaches sometimes give key players a break. Choose matches that are not critical for the favorite.
- Features of personal relationships between clubs, players, coaches. In such matches, there is a chance for a tough fight and you can catch a good odds by betting on an underdog with a handicap.
Quarterly basketball betting strategy
Beginning players prefer strategies that do not require special analytical skills. The catch-up scheme in betting on basketball in quarters has gained great popularity.
It is not difficult to understand it, because a simple algorithm works:
- we bet on the victory of the underdog in the first quarter with a coefficient of 2.00-2.60;
- in case of failure in the second quarter, we bet such an amount on the outsider that the entry would bring profit, taking into account the previous failure;
- then we are chasing according to the situation.
Others, on the contrary, lead a catch-up series even after the completion of one match in which they suffered four failures. The fifth bet in a catch-up is carried over to the first quarter of another match.
Catching up in the quarters of basketball games has gained a lot of popularity for statistical reasons. There are very few matches in competitive championships where the favorite wins all four periods.
For example, in the NBA from March 10 to March 12, 2020, 16 games were played. Only in two of them the outsiders did not win a single quarter. Those were Utah Jazz vs Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 66ers vs Detroit Pistons.
And even in these confrontations, the third quarters ended in a draw. This fits in perfectly with the theory of "catchers" who claim that the favorite gives up in the third period if he has already guaranteed a win.
To use catch-up, study the formula for calculating the amount of each next bet:
C = (B + P) / (K - 1), where C is the size of the bet, B is the expected profit, P is the amount of losses, K is the coefficient.
For example, take the Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns game on March 11, 2020.
The hosts were considered the favourites. The outsider's victory in the first quarter was estimated by the bookmakers with a coefficient of 2.55.
We bet on the Phoenix Suns 1000 dollars in the starting segment. Portland won the first quarter with a score of 36:28, the bet did not work.
We use catch-up and again bet on the victory of the guests in the second quarter. Now the coefficient is slightly lower - 2.20. We carry out calculations:
C = (500 + 1000) / (2.20 - 1) = 1250
We bet $1,250 on the Phoenix Suns in the second quarter. The bet went, because the guests won 25:18.
1250 x 2.20 = 2750 - bet payout; 2750 - 1250 - 1000 = 500 - net gain in catch-up.
The question remains: if everything is so simple, why haven't the bookmakers been bankrupted yet?
The answer is simple: offices simply cut the highs of the "catch-ups". This means that for a player who regularly plays catch-up, a low bet limit is set.
Because of this, serial betting with a significant increase in bet amounts is not possible.
Therefore, you should not count on catch-up. Even if you do not go bankrupt due to a bad series, the bookmaker will still not let you win for a long time.
Thus, betting on an outsider in basketball is an occupation for professional players who are able to skillfully conduct a comprehensive pre-match analysis.