To regularly win on bets, you need to be able to analyze matches. But how to do that? In this article, we will discuss the main mistake of players in the analysis, understand the principles of the movement of odds and figure out when it is possible to bet on football and other sports.
Statistics analysis
Use statistics to analyze sporting events. Study the statistics and increase your chances of winning.
If you have chosen football matches for betting, consider the following information:
- History of personal meetings.
- Results of recent matches.
- The position of the teams in the tournament.
- Number of rest days since the last match.
- Results of rivals at home and away.
- The history of the confrontation between the head coaches of the teams.
- Results of matches with higher teams.
- Results of matches with lower teams.
- Disqualifications and injuries of players.
- Team scores as judged by a designated referee.
For example, you are considering a bet on the victory of Manchester City in the away match against Wolverhampton in the Premier League. The Citizens have won four matches in a row, while the Wolves lost the previous home match.
In their last five matches against Wolverhampton, Manchester City have only won one in regular time. As a result, the "wolves" beat the "citizens" with a score of 3:2.
Analysis of the movement of coefficients
Bookmakers put up a line for football matches several days in advance, and in some cases several weeks and even months in advance.
The odds for different selections change depending on the actions of the players: large bets from a large number of players reduce the odds for the selected outcome and increase the odds for the opposite one.
For example, for the UFC Khabib Nurmagomedov - Dustin Poirier fight, the bookmakers set the following line: odds of 1.42 for Nurmagomedov's victory and 3.05 for Poirier's victory.
A minute before the start of the fight, the line looked like this: odds of 1.20 for Nurmagomedov's victory and 3.95 for Poirier's victory. This means that the vast majority of players have made a choice in favor of Khabib.
You can track the movement of coefficients on specialized sites. But remember: the opinion of most players is wrong.
Situational analysis
When choosing a bet on a football match or other sport, analyze publications in the sports media about the upcoming event.
For example, to predict a football match, study the following information:
- Press conferences of head coaches.
- Player interviews.
- The latest news about the state of the injured.
- Publications about the relationship between the players and the trainer.
- Rumors about possible transfers.
- Latest news about changes in the club.
- Statements of the united groups of fans.
For example, in Barcelona, some players and fans were unhappy with the head coach. The leadership of the Catalans dismissed Ernesto Valverde. Also inside the club, there was a conflict between Messi and the sports director, and in training there were disputes between the players.
Against this background, from December 14, 2019 to February 7, 2020, Barcelona won only five matches out of 11.
Composition analysis
In team sports, analyze the chances of opponents only after the starting lineups have been announced.
The influence of individual players on the final result is great.
For example, an hour before the start of the NBA Los Angeles Lakers - Denver Nuggets game, information appeared that LeBron James would miss the meeting. Without their leader, the hosts lost with a score of 104:128.
Analysis of expert opinions
Use other people's forecasts to get valuable information. Blindly repeating an expert's bet is risky. Consider only the facts.
For example, in the prediction for the Serie A match between Juventus and Fiorentina, the author of the Championship, Vladimir Prokofiev, wrote that Cristiano Ronaldo would not score. But he gave statistics: Ronaldo scored in eight consecutive Serie A matches.
In the Juventus-Fiorentina match, Cristiano Ronaldo scored two goals.
To increase your chances of winning, analyze all the information about a sporting event: statistics, media publications, strengths and weaknesses of athletes. Bet on the match only after the announcement of the starting lineups, and use the opinions of experts to obtain valuable information.